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Simplified etymology
Trough is an Old English word whose primary meaning was “wooden vessel.” It is related to tray, whose earliest sense may similarly have been “wooden container.” Its use for a downturn on a graph or similar representation dates from the late 19th century in meteorology, the early 20th century in economics, and more generally from the 1930s.
Etymology
From Middle English trogh, from Old English troh or trog ("wooden vessel, basin"), ultimately Germanic. The container's long, hollow shape gave rise to the geographical, oceanographic, meteorological, and economic senses of an elongated or cyclical low point.